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SNP set for majority as Alba Party miss out on seats, says poll

By Alan Beresford

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THE SNP is on course to win a majority in the Scottish Parliament elections, according to a new poll.

An Ipsos MORI poll for STV has put the SNP on course for a majority.
An Ipsos MORI poll for STV has put the SNP on course for a majority.

According to an Ipsos MORI poll commissioned by STV, the SNP would gain seven seats giving them 70 and an outright majority of 11.

The party would claim 53 per cent in the constituency ballot, more than double that of the second placed Tories on 20 percent. Labour remain in third on 18 per cent while the Lib Dems are backed by six per cent of respondents and the Greens two per cent.

There was bad news for former First Minister Alex Salmond’s fledgling Alba Party if the results of the poll were to be replicated on polling day. The party, which is standing solely on the regional lists, registered at only 3 per cent, a figure unlikely to yield any seats.

The list vote could be a happy hunting ground for the Greens, whose seats in the last parliament were all gained through the list vote. Ipsos MORI’s snapshot puts them at 12 per cent, enough to potentially yield 11 seats.

The Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems would all lose seats according to the projections.

The overall list vote standings are: SNP – 39 per cent; Tories – 21 per cent; Labour – 18 per cent; Greens – 12 per cent; Lib Dems– 5 per cent; Alba – 3 per cent; Others – 2 per cent.

Based on these figures, Ipsos MORI’s seat projections are: SNP 70 (+7); Tories 25 (-6); Labour 19 (-5); Greens 11 (+5); Lib Dems 4 (-1).

Taken together, these results would deliver what is being called a supermajority for the independence supporting parties, with the SNP and Greens claiming a total of 81 seats out of the 129 available, a majority of 33 over the Unionist parties.

However, seat projections come with a caveat due to the nature of the Scottish electoral system which features both first-past-the-post and proportional elements.

In terms of issues, the poll show independence and devolution holding a commanding lead among those surveyed at 49 per cent. Almost neck and neck were education (28 per cent) and health care/the NHS (27 per cent).

Managing the economy and the Covid pandemic were also too close to call at 16 and 15 percent respectively.

For more on the poll, visit https://news.stv.tv/politics/snp-still-on-course-for-holyrood-majority-stv-poll

Ipsos MORI conducted telephone interviews with a representative sample of 1038 adults aged over 16 between over March 29 and April 4.

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