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ELECTION 2021: Polls continue to show solid lead for SNP as campaigning resumes


By Alan Beresford

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THE SNP retain a commanding lead in both the constituency and regional votes, a poll of polls has found.

There has been little movement in the polls so far, with SNP still out in front.
There has been little movement in the polls so far, with SNP still out in front.

The average of five polls – Ipsos MORI, Opinium, Panelbase, Savanta ComRes and Survation – between March 29 and April 7 taken by the BBC has shown the SNP well out in front with a projected 51 per cent of the constituency vote, more than twice that of the second place Conservatives on 21 per cent.

The Tories maintain a narrow two per cent lead over Labour while the Liberal democrats scored seven per cent.

In the regional list vote, the SNP have 40 per cent of the vote according to the poll avergae, with the Tories on 21 percent, Labour 18 per cent, the Greens on eight per cent and the Liberal Democrats six per cent.

Again there was little in the way of good news for former First Minister Alex Salmond's Alba party, which is only standing on the list vote. The poll of polls gave Alba just three per cent of the list vote, a figure unlikely to yield any seats.

Should these outcomes be replicated when voters go to the polls on May 6, it would see an outright SNP majority in the 129-seat Scottish Parliament of around nine seats. The Greens could also see a rise in their representation in the parliament.

Like her party, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon continues to enjoy a high standing in the approval stakes.

The SNP leader was given a 54 per cent approval rating by respondents as opposed to a 35 per cent negative rating.

Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross was given a 21 per cent positive rating (40 per cent negative), while Scottish Labour leader Anwas Sarwar was given a favourable rating by 30 per cent of respondents (24 per cent negative).

Scottish Liberal Democrat got the thumbs up from 18 per cent 927 per cent negative), just ahead of Patrick Harvie for the Greens, who scored 16 per cent positive and 27 per cent unfavourable.

Mr Salmond found favour with just 12 per cent, some 73 per cent rating him unfavourably.

Campaigning was suspended in the immediate aftermath of the death of the the Duke of Edinburgh.

These ratings were taken from a total of four polls – Opinium, Savanta ComRes and Survation. Respondents to the Opinium survey were not asked to rate Mr Harvie or Mr Rennie nor were they given a 'neither favourable nor unfavourable' option.

For more details of the poll of polls, visit https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56730527

Of the 129 seats at Holyrood up for grabs, 73 of these are constituency seats and and 56 are regional list. The latter are there to try and introduce a greater degree of proportionality between votes cast and the final shape of the parliament.


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