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ELECTION 2021: Poll predicts SNP will fall just short of Holyrood majority

By Alan Beresford

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THE SNP could just miss out on attaining an overall majority, a new opinion poll has revealed.

The SNP could fall just shy of a majority, a new poll has suggested.
The SNP could fall just shy of a majority, a new poll has suggested.

A Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman suggests that the party will gain 63 seats overall, just two short of the 65 majority mark.

The poll indicates that the SNP would collect 46 per cent of the constituency vote, the same as their 2016 election tally. In the list vote, 38 per cent of respondents opted for the SNP.

Meanwhile, the Tories would claim 25 per cent of the constituency vote and 23 per cent in the regional votes which, if replicated at the ballot box, could see the party boost their current number of seats by one to 32.

Labour's constituency vote in the poll remains static at 20 per cent, although with a score of only 17 per cent would see the party take 17 seats, a reduction of three on 2016.

The Greens would be set to gain a seat, their eight per cent of the vote landing them eight seats, a record high for the party at Holyrood.

It is a case of as you were for the Liberal Democrats, who clocked six per cent in the constituency vote and five per cent in the regional list among the poll respondents. This would see them enter the new parliament with five seats, the same as 2016.

The survey, however, does make for grim reading where the smaller parties are concerned, including former First Minister Alex Salmond's Alba Party.

Savanta ComRes show Alba bumping along with one per cent of the vote, their lowest since it was established. The rating is similar to Abolish the Scottish Parliament Party, All for Unity Party, the Scottish Libertarians and UKIP and would be unlikely to yield any seats.

A higher number of people – seven per cent – stated that they would vote for a different party on the list than they would in the constituency ballot.

The survey interviewed 1001 Scottish adults aged 16 or over between April 16 and 20.

Click here to see the full survey results.

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